Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.