From Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”