Everyday Homicides in the nation Fall 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The typical figure of everyday homicides per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government data. However, security analysts have advised that homicide figures could fail to indicate improved national security.

Notable Drop in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November compared with almost 87 when the President began the presidential office in September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen over these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the least number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main elements of the President's safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater coordination between various agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

But, security experts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be very good news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was also concerning because it could obscure days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to express their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to create a narrative of security. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” Vargas concluded.