Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
